Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
